AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Tweede Divisie Sep 23, 2023

Spakenburg

Home
VS
13:00

Excelsior Maassluis

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Spakenburg Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Excelsior Maassluis Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 87%
Market 50%
Combined: 57% Draw Risk: 36%
xG: 2.75 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.8 vs 0.2 Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Spakenburg Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
6%
1 goals:
18%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
15%
Excelsior Maassluis Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (20%) 3-0 (18%) 1-0 (14%) 0-0 (5%) 2-1 (4%) 3-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 17%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Under 2.5 Goals 50%
Spakenburg Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 16 Spakenburg vs Katwijk 1-4
Sep 02 Spakenburg vs Koninklij… 2-1
Aug 26 Spakenburg vs Rijnsburg… 2-0
May 27 Spakenburg vs Katwijk 2-1
May 13 Spakenburg vs Rijnsburg… 1-0
Apr 15 Spakenburg vs De Treffe… 2-0
Feb 11 Spakenburg vs Excelsior… 0-2
Feb 08 Spakenburg vs Katwijk 1-1
Jan 21 Spakenburg vs Sparta Ro… 3-1
Dec 10 Spakenburg vs Koninklij… 1-0
Excelsior Maassluis Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 16 Excelsior… vs Kozakken … 0-0
Sep 02 Excelsior… vs Almere Ci… 5-3
May 27 Excelsior… vs AFC Amste… 0-0
May 06 Excelsior… vs Koninklij… 2-1
Apr 15 Excelsior… vs Katwijk 6-2
Mar 11 Excelsior… vs Rijnsburg… 4-1
Feb 11 Excelsior… vs Spakenburg 0-2
Feb 04 Excelsior… vs Ijsselmee… 2-3
Jan 21 Excelsior… vs De Treffe… 1-1
Dec 10 Excelsior… vs Kozakken … 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Spakenburg struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 11, 2023 Excelsior Maassluis 0 - 2 Spakenburg Tweede Divisie
Oct 04, 2022 Spakenburg 0 - 1 Excelsior Maassluis Tweede Divisie
May 28, 2022 Excelsior Maassluis 4 - 0 Spakenburg Tweede Divisie
Oct 09, 2021 Spakenburg 4 - 2 Excelsior Maassluis Tweede Divisie
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Spakenburg to win (63% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 63% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Spakenburg Power 0
Excelsior Maassluis Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Spakenburg Position

+11

Position Gap

16

Excelsior Maassluis Position
Home Win Rate: 60%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.