AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Tweede Divisie Oct 04, 2022

Spakenburg

Home
VS
18:00

Excelsior Maassluis

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Spakenburg Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Excelsior Maassluis Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 82%
Standings 87%
Market 50%
Combined: 54% Draw Risk: 32%
xG: 2.31 - 1.16
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.3 vs 1.2 Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (32%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Spakenburg Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
10%
1 goals:
23%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
12%
Excelsior Maassluis Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
31%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (10%) 1-1 (8%) 2-0 (8%) 3-1 (7%) 1-0 (7%) 3-0 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Under 2.5 Goals 36%
Spakenburg Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 27 Spakenburg vs Sparta Ro… 0-1
Aug 20 Spakenburg vs Koninklij… 2-1
Jun 04 Spakenburg vs Rijnsburg… 2-1
May 28 Spakenburg vs Excelsior… 4-0
May 21 Spakenburg vs Koninklij… 2-3
Apr 30 Spakenburg vs De Treffe… 5-2
Apr 09 Spakenburg vs Sparta Ro… 0-3
Apr 05 Spakenburg vs Katwijk 2-2
Feb 26 Spakenburg vs Sparta Ro… 0-6
Feb 19 Spakenburg vs De Treffe… 1-0
Excelsior Maassluis Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 24 Excelsior… vs Rijnsburg… 3-1
Sep 10 Excelsior… vs Ijsselmee… 2-2
Aug 27 Excelsior… vs De Treffe… 0-2
Aug 20 Excelsior… vs Kozakken … 3-0
May 28 Excelsior… vs Spakenburg 4-0
May 24 Excelsior… vs AFC Amste… 2-1
May 21 Excelsior… vs Katwijk 1-0
Apr 23 Excelsior… vs De Treffe… 2-0
Apr 16 Excelsior… vs Ijsselmee… 0-2
Apr 02 Excelsior… vs Kozakken … 2-3
Key Analysis Factors
  • Spakenburg struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 28, 2022 Excelsior Maassluis 4 - 0 Spakenburg Tweede Divisie
Oct 09, 2021 Spakenburg 4 - 2 Excelsior Maassluis Tweede Divisie
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Spakenburg to win (63% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 63% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Spakenburg Power 0
Excelsior Maassluis Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Spakenburg Position

+11

Position Gap

16

Excelsior Maassluis Position
Home Win Rate: 60%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.