AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga MX Jul 21, 2024

Cruz Azul

Home
VS
03:05

Toluca

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Cruz Azul Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Toluca Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 85%
Standings 75%
Market 50%
Combined: 53% Draw Risk: 42%
xG: 2.58 - 1.23
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.6 vs 1.2
High draw risk (42%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Cruz Azul Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
20%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Toluca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
29%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
9%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (9%) 3-1 (8%) 2-0 (7%) 1-1 (7%) 3-0 (6%) 1-0 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 68%
Under 2.5 Goals 32%
Cruz Azul Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
May 27 Cruz Azul vs Club Amér… 1-0
May 24 Cruz Azul vs Club Amér… 1-1
May 20 Cruz Azul vs Monterrey 1-2
May 17 Cruz Azul vs Monterrey 0-1
May 13 Cruz Azul vs U.N.A.M. … 2-2
May 10 Cruz Azul vs U.N.A.M. … 0-2
Apr 28 Cruz Azul vs Toluca 0-1
Apr 22 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 2-2
Apr 13 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 0-1
Apr 07 Cruz Azul vs Monterrey 2-1
Toluca Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
May 12 Toluca vs Guadalaja… 0-0
May 09 Toluca vs Guadalaja… 1-0
Apr 28 Toluca vs Cruz Azul 0-1
Apr 20 Toluca vs Atletico … 1-5
Apr 14 Toluca vs Club Amér… 5-1
Apr 07 Toluca vs Atlas 4-1
Mar 02 Toluca vs Tigres UA… 2-1
Feb 22 Toluca vs Santos La… 1-0
Feb 19 Toluca vs Monterrey 0-0
Jan 27 Toluca vs Puebla 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Toluca struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 7 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 28, 2024 Toluca 0 - 1 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Jul 08, 2023 Cruz Azul 0 - 2 Toluca Liga MX
Feb 12, 2023 Toluca 3 - 1 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Dec 23, 2022 Toluca 1 - 1 Cruz Azul Copa por México
Aug 14, 2022 Cruz Azul 2 - 3 Toluca Liga MX
Feb 21, 2022 Toluca 1 - 4 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Aug 15, 2021 Cruz Azul 4 - 0 Toluca Liga MX
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Cruz Azul to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Cruz Azul Power 0
Toluca Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Cruz Azul Position

+3

Position Gap

5

Toluca Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.