AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga MX Jul 08, 2023

Cruz Azul

Home
VS
23:50

Toluca

Away
AI Predictions 44.4% Confidence
Cruz Azul Win
27.0%
Draw
28.6%
Toluca Win
44.4%
Away Win (44% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 53%
Standings 75%
Market 50%
Combined: 45% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.01 - 0.83
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Cruz Azul Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
36%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
6%
4 goals:
2%
Toluca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
44%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
15%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (16%) 0-0 (16%) 1-1 (13%) 0-1 (13%) 2-0 (8%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 36%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Under 2.5 Goals 72%
Cruz Azul Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Jul 02 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 2-0
Jun 21 Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez 3-1
May 06 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 0-1
Apr 23 Cruz Azul vs Guadalaja… 2-1
Apr 09 Cruz Azul vs León FC 0-0
Feb 25 Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez 1-0
Feb 23 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 1-0
Feb 18 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 1-3
Feb 12 Cruz Azul vs Toluca 3-1
Feb 05 Cruz Azul vs Tigres UA… 0-1
Toluca Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Jun 24 Toluca vs Puebla 1-1
May 14 Toluca vs Tigres UA… 3-1
Apr 08 Toluca vs Puebla 1-2
Feb 24 Toluca vs Santos La… 0-5
Feb 12 Toluca vs Cruz Azul 3-1
Feb 06 Toluca vs Monterrey 2-1
Dec 23 Toluca vs Cruz Azul 1-1
Oct 17 Toluca vs Santos La… 1-2
Oct 14 Toluca vs Santos La… 4-3
Aug 18 Toluca vs Monterrey 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Toluca in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
  • Cruz Azul struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 12, 2023 Toluca 3 - 1 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Dec 23, 2022 Toluca 1 - 1 Cruz Azul Copa por México
Aug 14, 2022 Cruz Azul 2 - 3 Toluca Liga MX
Feb 21, 2022 Toluca 1 - 4 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Aug 15, 2021 Cruz Azul 4 - 0 Toluca Liga MX
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Cruz Azul to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Cruz Azul Power 0
Toluca Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Cruz Azul Position

+3

Position Gap

5

Toluca Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.