AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga MX Feb 12, 2023

Toluca

Home
VS
18:00

Cruz Azul

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Toluca Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Cruz Azul Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 44%
Market 50%
Combined: 46% Draw Risk: 30%
xG: 2.59 - 1.65
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.6 vs 1.6
High draw risk (30%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Toluca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
19%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Cruz Azul Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
19%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
14%
4 goals:
6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (8%) 3-1 (7%) 2-2 (7%) 1-1 (6%) 3-2 (6%) 1-2 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 74%
Under 2.5 Goals 26%
Toluca Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 06 Toluca vs Monterrey 2-1
Dec 23 Toluca vs Cruz Azul 1-1
Oct 17 Toluca vs Santos La… 1-2
Oct 14 Toluca vs Santos La… 4-3
Aug 18 Toluca vs Monterrey 1-1
Aug 14 Toluca vs Cruz Azul 2-3
Aug 03 Toluca vs Puebla 1-1
Jul 23 Toluca vs Santos La… 2-1
Apr 03 Toluca vs Puebla 2-1
Feb 21 Toluca vs Cruz Azul 1-4
Cruz Azul Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 05 Cruz Azul vs Tigres UA… 0-1
Dec 31 Cruz Azul vs Guadalaja… 0-2
Dec 23 Cruz Azul vs Toluca 1-1
Oct 09 Cruz Azul vs León FC 1-0
Oct 02 Cruz Azul vs Guadalaja… 2-1
Sep 16 Cruz Azul vs León FC 2-1
Sep 03 Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez 2-2
Aug 14 Cruz Azul vs Toluca 2-3
Jul 24 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 2-2
Jul 16 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 3-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Cruz Azul in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 23, 2022 Toluca 1 - 1 Cruz Azul Copa por México
Aug 14, 2022 Cruz Azul 2 - 3 Toluca Liga MX
Feb 21, 2022 Toluca 1 - 4 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Aug 15, 2021 Cruz Azul 4 - 0 Toluca Liga MX
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Toluca Power 0
Cruz Azul Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Toluca Position

-3

Position Gap

2

Cruz Azul Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.