AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Copa por México Dec 23, 2022

Toluca

Home
VS
01:00

Cruz Azul

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Toluca Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Cruz Azul Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-2
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 31%
xG: 4.50 - 2.46
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 2.5
High draw risk (31%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Toluca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Cruz Azul Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
9%
1 goals:
21%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
13%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-2 (4%) 3-3 (4%) 3-1 (4%) 2-2 (3%) 2-3 (2%) 2-1 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 90%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Under 2.5 Goals 36%
Toluca Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 17 Toluca vs Santos La… 1-2
Oct 14 Toluca vs Santos La… 4-3
Aug 18 Toluca vs Monterrey 1-1
Aug 14 Toluca vs Cruz Azul 2-3
Aug 03 Toluca vs Puebla 1-1
Jul 23 Toluca vs Santos La… 2-1
Apr 03 Toluca vs Puebla 2-1
Feb 21 Toluca vs Cruz Azul 1-4
Jan 16 Toluca vs Santos La… 3-1
Nov 06 Toluca vs Puebla 1-0
Cruz Azul Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 09 Cruz Azul vs León FC 1-0
Oct 02 Cruz Azul vs Guadalaja… 2-1
Sep 16 Cruz Azul vs León FC 2-1
Sep 03 Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez 2-2
Aug 14 Cruz Azul vs Toluca 2-3
Jul 24 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 2-2
Jul 16 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 3-2
Jul 03 Cruz Azul vs Tigres UA… 2-3
Jun 27 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 2-2
Apr 17 Cruz Azul vs Guadalaja… 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Toluca in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Cruz Azul in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 14, 2022 Cruz Azul 2 - 3 Toluca Liga MX
Feb 21, 2022 Toluca 1 - 4 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Aug 15, 2021 Cruz Azul 4 - 0 Toluca Liga MX
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Toluca to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Toluca Power 0
Cruz Azul Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.