AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga MX Aug 14, 2022

Cruz Azul

Home
VS
22:00

Toluca

Away
AI Predictions 38.0% Confidence
Cruz Azul Win
35.0%
Draw
27.0%
Toluca Win
38.0%
Away Win (38% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 75%
Market 50%
Combined: 55% Draw Risk: 39%
xG: 2.52 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.5 vs 0.2
High draw risk (39%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Cruz Azul Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
20%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Toluca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (21%) 3-0 (18%) 1-0 (17%) 0-0 (7%) 2-1 (4%) 3-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 17%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Under 2.5 Goals 53%
Cruz Azul Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jul 24 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 2-2
Jul 16 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 3-2
Jul 03 Cruz Azul vs Tigres UA… 2-3
Jun 27 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 2-2
Apr 17 Cruz Azul vs Guadalaja… 0-1
Apr 03 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 1-0
Mar 06 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 1-3
Feb 21 Cruz Azul vs Toluca 1-4
Jan 16 Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez 1-0
Oct 24 Cruz Azul vs Guadalaja… 1-1
Toluca Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 03 Toluca vs Puebla 1-1
Jul 23 Toluca vs Santos La… 2-1
Apr 03 Toluca vs Puebla 2-1
Feb 21 Toluca vs Cruz Azul 1-4
Jan 16 Toluca vs Santos La… 3-1
Nov 06 Toluca vs Puebla 1-0
Aug 15 Toluca vs Cruz Azul 4-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Toluca in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 21, 2022 Toluca 1 - 4 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Aug 15, 2021 Cruz Azul 4 - 0 Toluca Liga MX
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Cruz Azul to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Cruz Azul Power 0
Toluca Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Cruz Azul Position

+3

Position Gap

5

Toluca Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.