AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga MX Apr 30, 2023

Guadalajara Chivas

Home
VS
01:05

Mazatlán FC

Away
AI Predictions 63.0% Confidence
Guadalajara Chivas Win
63.0%
Draw
21.4%
Mazatlán FC Win
15.6%
Home Win (63% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) TOP3vsBot (75.8%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) TOP3_VS_REL (80.8%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 95%
Market 50%
Combined: 55% Draw Risk: 51%
xG: 1.21 - 0.29
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.2 vs 0.3 Position gap: 17 places
High draw risk (51%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Guadalajara Chivas Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
30%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
9%
4 goals:
3%
Mazatlán FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
75%
1 goals:
22%
2 goals:
3%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (27%) 0-0 (22%) 2-0 (16%) 1-1 (8%) 3-0 (7%) 0-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 18%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Under 2.5 Goals 81%
Guadalajara Chivas Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 23 Guadalaja… vs Cruz Azul 2-1
Feb 12 Guadalaja… vs Pachuca 1-1
Feb 05 Guadalaja… vs Querétaro 1-1
Jan 29 Guadalaja… vs FC Juarez 1-2
Jan 14 Guadalaja… vs Atletico … 0-0
Dec 31 Guadalaja… vs Cruz Azul 0-2
Dec 17 Guadalaja… vs Mazatlán … 1-0
Oct 02 Guadalaja… vs Cruz Azul 2-1
Aug 06 Guadalaja… vs Mazatlán … 2-1
Jul 31 Guadalaja… vs Pachuca 0-0
Mazatlán FC Form 0.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 22 Mazatlán … vs Monterrey 0-2
Feb 11 Mazatlán … vs Puebla 3-1
Feb 04 Mazatlán … vs FC Juarez 2-3
Jan 13 Mazatlán … vs Atlas 2-1
Dec 21 Mazatlán … vs Atlas 2-1
Dec 17 Mazatlán … vs Guadalaja… 1-0
Sep 08 Mazatlán … vs Atlas 1-0
Sep 04 Mazatlán … vs Monterrey 0-0
Aug 21 Mazatlán … vs FC Juarez 1-1
Aug 06 Mazatlán … vs Guadalaja… 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Mazatlán FC struggling (5L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 17, 2022 Guadalajara Chivas 1 - 0 Mazatlán FC Copa por México
Aug 06, 2022 Mazatlán FC 2 - 1 Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX
Jan 10, 2022 Guadalajara Chivas 3 - 0 Mazatlán FC Liga MX
Nov 06, 2021 Mazatlán FC 0 - 1 Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX
Final Verdict

MASTER: Guadalajara Chivas to win (83% confidence)

MASTER Tier
Predicted: 1-0 83% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 17
Guadalajara Chivas Power 0
Mazatlán FC Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Guadalajara Chivas Position

+17

Position Gap

18

Mazatlán FC Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.