AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Taça da Liga Nov 19, 2022

Tondela

Home
VS
18:00

Estoril

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
Tondela Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
Estoril Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 30%
xG: 3.88 - 0.41
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.9 vs 0.4
High draw risk (30%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Tondela Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
2%
1 goals:
8%
2 goals:
16%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
20%
Estoril Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
66%
1 goals:
27%
2 goals:
6%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (13%) 2-0 (10%) 3-1 (5%) 1-0 (5%) 2-1 (4%) 1-1 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 33%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Under 2.5 Goals 40%
Tondela Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 14 Tondela vs Moreirense 1-1
Nov 09 Tondela vs Nacional 1-0
Aug 06 Tondela vs Nacional 0-1
Jul 30 Tondela vs FC Porto 3-0
Jul 22 Tondela vs GIL Vicen… 1-1
May 22 Tondela vs FC Porto 3-1
May 08 Tondela vs GIL Vicen… 3-0
Apr 16 Tondela vs Moreirense 2-0
Mar 19 Tondela vs Arouca 2-2
Mar 13 Tondela vs FC Porto 4-0
Estoril Form 2.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 14 Estoril vs Santa Cla… 3-1
Nov 09 Estoril vs Benfica 0-1
Nov 06 Estoril vs Benfica 1-5
Oct 22 Estoril vs SC Braga 0-2
Sep 17 Estoril vs FC Porto 1-1
Aug 14 Estoril vs Guimaraes 1-0
Aug 06 Estoril vs Famalicao 2-0
May 14 Estoril vs FC Porto 2-0
May 07 Estoril vs Moreirense 1-0
Apr 29 Estoril vs Famalicao 3-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Estoril struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 12, 2022 Estoril 1 - 0 Tondela Primeira Liga
Dec 21, 2021 Tondela 3 - 1 Estoril Taça de Portug…
Sep 13, 2021 Tondela 1 - 2 Estoril Primeira Liga
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Tondela to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Tondela Power 0
Estoril Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.