AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga Feb 12, 2022

Estoril

Home
VS
20:30

Tondela

Away
AI Predictions 38.0% Confidence
Estoril Win
35.0%
Draw
27.0%
Tondela Win
38.0%
Away Win (38% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
S75+DR<25 (81.8%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) CS65+DR<30 (68.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 78%
Market 50%
Combined: 66% Draw Risk: 25%
xG: 2.82 - 0.62
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.8 vs 0.6 Position gap: 9 places
Score Prediction Analysis
Estoril Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
6%
1 goals:
17%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
16%
Tondela Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
54%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
10%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (13%) 3-0 (12%) 1-0 (9%) 2-1 (8%) 3-1 (7%) 1-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 43%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Under 2.5 Goals 40%
Estoril Form 2.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 23 Estoril vs Guimaraes 3-1
Jan 08 Estoril vs FC Porto 2-3
Dec 28 Estoril vs Moreirense 1-0
Dec 21 Estoril vs Tondela 3-1
Dec 17 Estoril vs Famalicao 2-2
Dec 05 Estoril vs SC Braga 2-0
Nov 29 Estoril vs Santa Cla… 2-2
Oct 30 Estoril vs Benfica 1-1
Sep 13 Estoril vs Tondela 1-2
Aug 13 Estoril vs Guimaraes 0-0
Tondela Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 07 Tondela vs Benfica 1-3
Jan 03 Tondela vs Moreirense 2-1
Dec 28 Tondela vs GIL Vicen… 0-3
Dec 21 Tondela vs Estoril 3-1
Oct 29 Tondela vs Arouca 2-0
Oct 23 Tondela vs FC Porto 1-3
Sep 25 Tondela vs Famalicao 3-2
Sep 20 Tondela vs SC Braga 3-1
Sep 13 Tondela vs Estoril 1-2
Aug 29 Tondela vs Benfica 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Estoril struggling (4L in last 5) Home
  • Tondela struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 21, 2021 Tondela 3 - 1 Estoril Taça de Portug…
Sep 13, 2021 Tondela 1 - 2 Estoril Primeira Liga
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Estoril to win (62% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 62% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Estoril Power 0
Tondela Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Estoril Position

+9

Position Gap

17

Tondela Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 20%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.