AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Taça de Portugal Dec 21, 2021

Tondela

Home
VS
18:45

Estoril

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Tondela Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Estoril Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 78%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 44%
xG: 1.84 - 1.00
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.8 vs 1.0
High draw risk (44%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Tondela Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
16%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Estoril Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
37%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
18%
3 goals:
6%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (11%) 1-1 (11%) 2-0 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 3-0 (6%) 3-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 53%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Under 2.5 Goals 47%
Tondela Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 29 Tondela vs Arouca 2-0
Oct 23 Tondela vs FC Porto 1-3
Sep 25 Tondela vs Famalicao 3-2
Sep 20 Tondela vs SC Braga 3-1
Sep 13 Tondela vs Estoril 1-2
Aug 29 Tondela vs Benfica 2-1
Jul 24 Tondela vs GIL Vicen… 0-1
Apr 30 Tondela vs Benfica 0-2
Apr 26 Tondela vs Famalicao 2-2
Apr 22 Tondela vs Nacional 2-1
Estoril Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 17 Estoril vs Famalicao 2-2
Dec 05 Estoril vs SC Braga 2-0
Nov 29 Estoril vs Santa Cla… 2-2
Oct 30 Estoril vs Benfica 1-1
Sep 13 Estoril vs Tondela 1-2
Aug 13 Estoril vs Guimaraes 0-0
Dec 17 Estoril vs SC Braga 3-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Tondela struggling (4L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Sep 13, 2021 Tondela 1 - 2 Estoril Primeira Liga
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Tondela to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Tondela Power 0
Estoril Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.