AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga Jan 18, 2025

Guimaraes

Home
VS
20:30

Arouca

Away
AI Predictions 37.0% Confidence
Guimaraes Win
37.0%
Draw
26.6%
Arouca Win
36.4%
Home Win (37% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-2
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 58%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 29%
xG: 4.50 - 2.11
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 2.1
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Guimaraes Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Arouca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
12%
1 goals:
26%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
10%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-2 (5%) 3-1 (4%) 3-3 (3%) 2-2 (3%) 2-1 (3%) 2-3 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Under 2.5 Goals 35%
Guimaraes Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 12 Guimaraes vs O Elvas 2-1
Jan 03 Guimaraes vs Sporting … 4-4
Jan 03 Guimaraes vs Sp Lisbon 4-4
Dec 29 Guimaraes vs Farense 2-2
Dec 23 Guimaraes vs Nacional 2-2
Dec 23 Guimaraes vs Nacional 2-2
Dec 16 Guimaraes vs Rio Ave FC 2-2
Dec 16 Guimaraes vs Rio Ave FC 2-2
Dec 07 Guimaraes vs Benfica 1-0
Dec 02 Guimaraes vs GIL Vicen… 4-0
Arouca Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 04 Arouca vs Boavista 1-3
Dec 27 Arouca vs GIL Vicen… 1-1
Dec 27 Arouca vs GIL Vicen… 1-1
Dec 20 Arouca vs Casa Pia … 3-1
Dec 15 Arouca vs Santa Cla… 1-0
Dec 15 Arouca vs Santa Cla… 1-0
Dec 09 Arouca vs Estrela d… 2-1
Dec 09 Arouca vs Estrela d… 2-1
Dec 01 Arouca vs Benfica 0-2
Nov 23 Arouca vs Farense 1-2
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 12, 2024 Arouca 0 - 1 Guimaraes Primeira Liga
Aug 12, 2024 Arouca 0 - 1 Guimaraes Pro League
May 18, 2024 Arouca 1 - 3 Guimaraes Pro League
May 18, 2024 Arouca 1 - 3 Guimaraes Primeira Liga
Jan 15, 2024 Guimaraes 2 - 1 Arouca Pro League
Jan 15, 2024 Guimaraes 2 - 1 Arouca Primeira Liga
Mar 11, 2023 Guimaraes 0 - 2 Arouca Primeira Liga
Sep 18, 2022 Arouca 2 - 2 Guimaraes Primeira Liga
Feb 19, 2022 Guimaraes 1 - 3 Arouca Primeira Liga
Sep 18, 2021 Arouca 2 - 2 Guimaraes Primeira Liga
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Guimaraes Power 0
Arouca Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

9

Guimaraes Position

+2

Position Gap

11

Arouca Position
Home Win Rate: 46%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.