AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga Sep 18, 2022

Arouca

Home
VS
14:30

Guimaraes

Away
AI Predictions 61.0% Confidence
Arouca Win
61.0%
Draw
21.8%
Guimaraes Win
17.2%
Home Win (61% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 83%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 36%
xG: 1.62 - 0.37
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.6 vs 0.4
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Arouca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
20%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
14%
4 goals:
6%
Guimaraes Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
69%
1 goals:
26%
2 goals:
5%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (22%) 2-0 (18%) 0-0 (14%) 3-0 (10%) 1-1 (8%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 31%
Under 2.5 Goals 69%
Arouca Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 20 Arouca vs Santa Cla… 1-2
Aug 15 Arouca vs GIL Vicen… 1-0
Apr 15 Arouca vs Santa Cla… 1-1
Apr 02 Arouca vs GIL Vicen… 2-1
Mar 19 Arouca vs Tondela 2-2
Mar 05 Arouca vs Sporting … 2-0
Feb 19 Arouca vs Guimaraes 1-3
Dec 05 Arouca vs Santa Cla… 2-1
Nov 05 Arouca vs GIL Vicen… 1-1
Oct 29 Arouca vs Tondela 2-0
Guimaraes Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 04 Guimaraes vs Paredes 0-1
Sep 03 Guimaraes vs SC Braga 1-0
Aug 29 Guimaraes vs Casa Pia … 0-1
Aug 27 Guimaraes vs Sanjoanen… 3-1
Aug 14 Guimaraes vs Estoril 1-0
May 15 Guimaraes vs GIL Vicen… 5-0
Apr 03 Guimaraes vs Moreirense 0-1
Mar 19 Guimaraes vs Sporting … 1-3
Feb 19 Guimaraes vs Arouca 1-3
Feb 13 Guimaraes vs Fafe 1-3
Key Analysis Factors
  • Arouca in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Guimaraes struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 19, 2022 Guimaraes 1 - 3 Arouca Primeira Liga
Sep 18, 2021 Arouca 2 - 2 Guimaraes Primeira Liga
Nov 21, 2020 Arouca 0 - 0 Guimaraes Taça de Portug…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Arouca Power 0
Guimaraes Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

11

Arouca Position

-2

Position Gap

9

Guimaraes Position
Home Win Rate: 20%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.