AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primera A Sep 21, 2023

Atlético Nacional

Home
VS
01:20

Santa Fe

Away
AI Predictions 57.0% Confidence
Atlético Nacional Win
57.0%
Draw
22.6%
Santa Fe Win
20.4%
Home Win (57% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 54% Draw Risk: 25%
xG: 4.18 - 0.79
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.2 vs 0.8
High draw risk (25%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Atlético Nacional Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
2%
1 goals:
6%
2 goals:
13%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
20%
Santa Fe Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
45%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
14%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (8%) 3-1 (7%) 2-0 (6%) 2-1 (5%) 1-0 (3%) 3-2 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Under 2.5 Goals 37%
Atlético Nacional Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 17 Atlético … vs Junior 1-1
Jul 30 Atlético … vs Jaguares 2-1
May 12 Atlético … vs Santa Fe 0-2
May 07 Atlético … vs Chico 3-1
Apr 10 Atlético … vs Junior 0-1
Feb 04 Atlético … vs Jaguares 2-1
Sep 11 Atlético … vs Jaguares 0-1
Aug 19 Atlético … vs Junior 1-1
Jul 29 Atlético … vs Junior 3-0
Jul 14 Atlético … vs Junior 3-1
Santa Fe Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 17 Santa Fe vs Alianza P… 0-1
Sep 13 Santa Fe vs Chico 1-1
Sep 02 Santa Fe vs Junior 1-0
May 18 Santa Fe vs Once Cald… 3-1
May 12 Santa Fe vs Atlético … 0-2
Apr 29 Santa Fe vs Deportes … 2-0
Apr 27 Santa Fe vs Rionegro … 3-1
Apr 16 Santa Fe vs Deportivo… 2-2
Apr 10 Santa Fe vs Alianza P… 3-1
Apr 01 Santa Fe vs Chico 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • AtlĂ©tico Nacional in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Santa Fe struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 12, 2023 Santa Fe 0 - 2 Atlético Nacional Primera A
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Atlético Nacional Power 0
Santa Fe Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

6

Atlético Nacional Position

+3

Position Gap

9

Santa Fe Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.