AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
1st Division Nov 28, 2021

Pogradeci

Home
VS
12:30

Apolonia Fier

Away
AI Predictions 37.0% Confidence
Pogradeci Win
37.0%
Draw
26.6%
Apolonia Fier Win
36.4%
Home Win (37% confidence)
Predicted Score: 0-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 66%
Standings 72%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 0.76 - 0.31
Key Insights
Position gap: 6 places
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Pogradeci Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
47%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
14%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Apolonia Fier Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
73%
1 goals:
23%
2 goals:
4%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0 (34%) 1-0 (26%) 0-1 (11%) 2-0 (10%) 1-1 (8%) 2-1 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 14%
Over 2.5 Goals 9%
Under 2.5 Goals 91%
Pogradeci Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 17 Pogradeci vs Vllaznia … 6-1
Nov 03 Pogradeci vs Vllaznia … 0-2
Oct 30 Pogradeci vs Korabi Pe… 0-0
Oct 13 Pogradeci vs Besa Kava… 2-0
Sep 22 Pogradeci vs Besa Kava… 1-0
Sep 18 Pogradeci vs Besa Kava… 0-0
Nov 12 Pogradeci vs Skenderbe… 3-0
Jul 11 Pogradeci vs Apolonia … 2-2
Jun 20 Pogradeci vs Apolonia … 0-1
Apolonia Fier Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
May 08 Apolonia … vs Laci 0-1
Apr 28 Apolonia … vs Kastrioti… 2-1
Mar 08 Apolonia … vs Laci 1-1
Feb 27 Apolonia … vs Kastrioti… 0-0
Jan 16 Apolonia … vs Laci 1-0
Dec 30 Apolonia … vs Kastrioti… 2-1
Nov 29 Apolonia … vs Laci 6-1
Jul 11 Apolonia … vs Pogradeci 2-2
Jun 20 Apolonia … vs Pogradeci 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Pogradeci struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jul 11, 2020 Apolonia Fier 2 - 2 Pogradeci 1st Division
Jun 20, 2020 Pogradeci 0 - 1 Apolonia Fier 1st Division
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Pogradeci to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Pogradeci Power 0
Apolonia Fier Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Pogradeci Position

+6

Position Gap

9

Apolonia Fier Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.