FAW Championship · Mar 28, 2026 14:00
Cardiff Draconians
PWR 54
PWR 54
2-1
predicted
Newport City
PWR 50
PWR 50
51%
24%
25%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Cardiff Draconians to win (60% confidence)
Score
2-1
Confidence
60%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (21%)1-0 (18%)3-0 (17%)0-0 (7%)2-1 (5%)1-1 (4%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
BTTS
No
No 18%
Over 3.5
41%
Team Comparison
59Attack47
54Defense61
Goals/G
1.71.3
Conc/G
1.31.1
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Cardiff Dracon…
DWLLW
STABLE
Newport City
WLLLD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): FAW Championship
Expected Goals (xG)
2.39
Cardiff Dracon…vs
0.22
Newport CityGoal Probability
Cardiff Dra…
0
9%
1
22%
2
26%
3
21%
4
13%
Newport City
0
80%
1
18%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (11%)2-1 (10%)1-0 (9%)3-0 (8%)1-1 (8%)3-1 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 4% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% | - |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% | - |
| 4.5 | 23% | 77% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 11% | 89% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
League Position
#28
Cardiff Dra…-11
Gap#17
Newport City
WR 48% 38 pts
WR 41% 68 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff Draco… | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 42 | 33 | 38 |
| Newport City | 44 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 59 | 49 | 68 |
Cardiff Dracon…
10.0%
| Mar 24 | Cardiff… v Ynyshir… | 0-0 |
| Mar 21 | Cardiff… v Trefelin | 0-4 |
| Mar 14 | Cardiff… v Caernar… | 2-3 |
| Mar 06 | Cardiff… v Ammanfo… | 2-1 |
| Mar 04 | Cardiff… v Trefelin | 3-1 |
| Feb 21 | Cardiff… v Treowen… | 1-0 |
| Feb 14 | Cardiff… v Baglan … | 3-1 |
| Jan 24 | Cardiff… v Aberyst… | 3-2 |
| Jan 16 | Cardiff… v Cwmbran… | 0-1 |
| Jan 10 | Cardiff… v Cambria… | 0-2 |
Newport City
6.0%
| Mar 20 | Newport… v Treowen… | 1-0 |
| Mar 14 | Newport… v Ynyshir… | 4-0 |
| Mar 09 | Newport… v Trethom… | 1-0 |
| Mar 06 | Newport… v Baglan … | 1-2 |
| Mar 01 | Newport… v Caernar… | 4-4 |
| Feb 20 | Newport… v Llantwi… | 2-1 |
| Feb 13 | Newport… v Afan Li… | 0-1 |
| Jan 31 | Newport… v Aberyst… | 0-1 |
| Jan 23 | Newport… v Cambria… | 2-0 |
| Jan 09 | Newport… v Caerau … | 1-1 |
Head-to-Head (1)
| Dec 10, 2025 | Newport City | 2-1 | Cardiff Draco… |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (37%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Newport City struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.