AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Eerste Divisie Oct 03, 2025

Jong Ajax

Home
VS
18:00

De Graafschap

Away
AI Predictions 41.2% Confidence
Jong Ajax Win
31.0%
Draw
27.8%
De Graafschap Win
41.2%
Away Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 67%
Standings 30%
Market 50%
Combined: 41% Draw Risk: 44%
xG: 1.54 - 1.00
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.5 vs 1.0
High draw risk (44%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Jong Ajax Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
21%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
13%
4 goals:
5%
De Graafschap Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
37%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
18%
3 goals:
6%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (12%) 1-1 (12%) 2-0 (9%) 2-1 (9%) 0-0 (8%) 0-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Under 2.5 Goals 54%
Jong Ajax Form 2.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 29 Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk 2-1
Sep 26 Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo 2-4
Sep 19 Jong Ajax vs Willem II 1-0
Sep 15 Jong Ajax vs ADO Den H… 1-3
Sep 12 Jong Ajax vs Roda 3-3
Aug 29 Jong Ajax vs MVV Maast… 0-0
Aug 25 Jong Ajax vs Jong Utre… 4-3
Aug 18 Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ 4-1
Aug 08 Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch 2-0
Apr 19 Jong Ajax vs De Graafs… 2-0
De Graafschap Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 29 De Graafs… vs Almere Ci… 3-2
Sep 26 De Graafs… vs Dordrecht 1-1
Sep 22 De Graafs… vs Jong AZ 1-3
Sep 12 De Graafs… vs Willem II 1-1
Sep 05 De Graafs… vs Emmen 2-3
Aug 22 De Graafs… vs MVV Maast… 0-1
Aug 15 De Graafs… vs Roda 1-0
Aug 08 De Graafs… vs VVV Venlo 3-2
May 17 De Graafs… vs Dordrecht 2-0
May 13 De Graafs… vs Dordrecht 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Jong Ajax struggling (4L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 19, 2025 De Graafschap 2 - 0 Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie
Dec 09, 2024 Jong Ajax 2 - 0 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
Mar 11, 2024 De Graafschap 0 - 2 Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie
Aug 21, 2023 Jong Ajax 1 - 2 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
Jan 13, 2023 De Graafschap 3 - 0 Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie
Aug 22, 2022 Jong Ajax 5 - 1 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
May 06, 2022 Jong Ajax 1 - 1 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
Nov 26, 2021 De Graafschap 1 - 3 Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (18% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 18% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Jong Ajax Power 0
De Graafschap Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

20

Jong Ajax Position

-15

Position Gap

5

De Graafschap Position
Home Win Rate: 23%
Away Win Rate: 46%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.