AI Match Insights
Primera A Oct 15, 2025
Deportivo Pasto
HomeVS
23:20
Millonarios
AwayAI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Deportivo Pasto Win
Draw
Millonarios Win
Home Win
(41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)
TOP3vsBot (75.8%)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)
M85+S60 (75.3%)
TOP3_VS_REL (80.8%)
GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)
HOME_FORT (73.3%)
TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
95%
Market
50%
Combined: 59%
Draw Risk: 35%
xG: 3.14 - 0.69
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.1 vs 0.7
Position gap: 17 places
High draw risk (35%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Deportivo Pasto Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Millonarios Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (11%)
2-0 (11%)
3-1 (8%)
2-1 (7%)
1-0 (7%)
1-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
48%
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
Under 2.5 Goals
36%
Deportivo Pasto Form 8.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | Deportivo… vs Rionegro … | 2-2 |
| Oct 07 | Deportivo… vs Envigado | 2-1 |
| Oct 05 | Deportivo… vs Alianza P… | 3-3 |
| Oct 04 | Deportivo… vs Deportivo… | 1-0 |
| Oct 02 | Deportivo… vs Once Cald… | 4-0 |
| Sep 29 | Deportivo… vs Junior | 2-0 |
| Sep 28 | Deportivo… vs Rionegro … | 3-1 |
| Sep 27 | Deportivo… vs Union Mag… | 2-2 |
| Sep 25 | Deportivo… vs America d… | 0-2 |
| Sep 22 | Deportivo… vs Chico | 1-1 |
Millonarios Form 10.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 08 | Millonari… vs America d… | 2-1 |
| Sep 28 | Millonari… vs Atlético … | 2-0 |
| Sep 21 | Millonari… vs Fortaleza… | 3-2 |
| Sep 17 | Millonari… vs Envigado | 0-0 |
| Sep 13 | Millonari… vs Alianza P… | 3-0 |
| Sep 11 | Millonari… vs Deportivo… | 1-0 |
| Sep 07 | Millonari… vs Santa Fe | 0-0 |
| Sep 03 | Millonari… vs Envigado | 1-0 |
| Aug 30 | Millonari… vs Rionegro … | 1-2 |
| Aug 27 | Millonari… vs Real Cart… | 2-1 |
Key Analysis Factors
No specific factors identified for this match.
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2025 | Millonarios | 1 - 0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| Aug 09, 2025 | Millonarios | 3 - 3 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| May 09, 2025 | Millonarios | 0 - 0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| Feb 01, 2025 | Deportivo Pasto | 0 - 1 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| Dec 09, 2024 | Deportivo Pasto | 0 - 0 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| Nov 20, 2024 | Millonarios | 2 - 1 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| Nov 11, 2024 | Millonarios | 0 - 0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| Nov 04, 2024 | Millonarios | 1 - 0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| May 25, 2024 | Deportivo Pasto | 2 - 2 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| May 12, 2024 | Millonarios | 1 - 0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
Final Verdict
MASTER: Deportivo Pasto to win (83% confidence)
MASTER Tier
Predicted: 1-0
83% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%)
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%)
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- Huge position gap: 17
Deportivo Pasto Power
0
Millonarios Power
0
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
1
Deportivo Pasto Position+17
Position Gap18
Millonarios Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.