AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga Aug 31, 2025

Tondela

Home
VS
14:30

Estoril

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Tondela Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Estoril Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 69%
Standings 32%
Market 50%
Combined: 42% Draw Risk: 36%
xG: 1.95 - 1.32
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 1.3
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Tondela Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
14%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
9%
Estoril Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
27%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
23%
3 goals:
10%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 1-0 (7%) 2-0 (7%) 1-2 (6%) 2-2 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Under 2.5 Goals 38%
Tondela Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 23 Tondela vs Benfica 3-0
Aug 16 Tondela vs Famalicao 0-1
Aug 10 Tondela vs SC Braga 3-0
Jul 24 Tondela vs Nacional 1-2
May 16 Tondela vs União de … 0-2
May 11 Tondela vs Alverca 1-2
May 04 Tondela vs Chaves 2-1
Apr 27 Tondela vs Portimone… 2-2
Apr 20 Tondela vs Vizela 0-1
May 19 Tondela vs AVS 0-1
Estoril Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 16 Estoril vs Guimaraes 3-2
Aug 11 Estoril vs Estrela d… 1-1
Jul 19 Estoril vs Alverca 1-2
May 17 Estoril vs Estrela d… 4-0
May 11 Estoril vs Moreirense 2-2
May 11 Estoril vs Valadares… 6-2
May 03 Estoril vs Benfica 1-2
Apr 29 Estoril vs Casa Pia … 1-3
Apr 19 Estoril vs SC Braga 0-2
Apr 12 Estoril vs Famalicao 3-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Tondela struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Nov 19, 2022 Tondela 0 - 0 Estoril Taça da Liga
Feb 12, 2022 Estoril 1 - 0 Tondela Primeira Liga
Dec 21, 2021 Tondela 3 - 1 Estoril Taça de Portug…
Sep 13, 2021 Tondela 1 - 2 Estoril Primeira Liga
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Tondela Power 0
Estoril Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

17

Tondela Position

-9

Position Gap

8

Estoril Position
Home Win Rate: 10%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.