AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga Aug 30, 2025

Guimaraes

Home
VS
17:00

Arouca

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Guimaraes Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Arouca Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 58%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 25%
xG: 4.50 - 0.61
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 0.6
High draw risk (25%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Guimaraes Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Arouca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
54%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
10%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (9%) 2-0 (6%) 3-1 (6%) 2-1 (4%) 1-0 (3%) 3-2 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 45%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Under 2.5 Goals 41%
Guimaraes Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 23 Guimaraes vs Moreirense 2-0
Aug 16 Guimaraes vs Estoril 3-2
Aug 11 Guimaraes vs FC Porto 3-0
Jul 16 Guimaraes vs Ponferrad… 10-0
May 17 Guimaraes vs Sporting … 2-0
May 17 Guimaraes vs Sp Lisbon 2-0
May 11 Guimaraes vs Farense 1-2
May 03 Guimaraes vs Nacional 1-2
Apr 27 Guimaraes vs Rio Ave FC 3-0
Apr 19 Guimaraes vs Benfica 0-3
Arouca Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 23 Arouca vs Rio Ave FC 3-3
Aug 17 Arouca vs Sporting … 6-0
Aug 09 Arouca vs AVS 3-1
May 17 Arouca vs Boavista 4-1
May 10 Arouca vs GIL Vicen… 1-1
May 04 Arouca vs Casa Pia … 0-0
Apr 26 Arouca vs Santa Cla… 2-0
Apr 19 Arouca vs Estrela d… 1-0
Apr 13 Arouca vs Benfica 2-2
Apr 05 Arouca vs Famalicao 1-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Guimaraes struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 18, 2025 Guimaraes 2 - 2 Arouca Primeira Liga
Jan 18, 2025 Guimaraes 2 - 2 Arouca Primeira Liga
Aug 12, 2024 Arouca 0 - 1 Guimaraes Primeira Liga
Aug 12, 2024 Arouca 0 - 1 Guimaraes Pro League
May 18, 2024 Arouca 1 - 3 Guimaraes Pro League
May 18, 2024 Arouca 1 - 3 Guimaraes Primeira Liga
Jan 15, 2024 Guimaraes 2 - 1 Arouca Pro League
Jan 15, 2024 Guimaraes 2 - 1 Arouca Primeira Liga
Mar 11, 2023 Guimaraes 0 - 2 Arouca Primeira Liga
Sep 18, 2022 Arouca 2 - 2 Guimaraes Primeira Liga
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Guimaraes Power 0
Arouca Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

9

Guimaraes Position

+2

Position Gap

11

Arouca Position
Home Win Rate: 46%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.