AI Match Insights
Primeira Liga Aug 24, 2025
FC Porto
HomeVS
17:00
Casa Pia AC
AwayAI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
FC Porto Win
Draw
Casa Pia AC Win
Home Win
(43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)
TOP3vsBot (75.8%)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)
GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)
HOME_FORT (73.3%)
TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
93%
Market
50%
Combined: 48%
Draw Risk: 52%
xG: 1.18 - 0.96
Key Insights
Position gap: 15 places
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
FC Porto Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Casa Pia AC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (14%)
1-1 (13%)
0-0 (12%)
0-1 (11%)
2-0 (8%)
2-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
43%
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
Under 2.5 Goals
64%
FC Porto Form 12.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23 | FC Porto vs Chertanovo | 1-1 |
| Aug 23 | FC Porto vs Lokomotiv… | 3-3 |
| Aug 18 | FC Porto vs GIL Vicen… | 0-2 |
| Aug 17 | FC Porto vs Rubin | 1-0 |
| Aug 15 | FC Porto vs Lokomotiv… | 1-2 |
| Aug 14 | FC Porto vs Nizhny No… | 1-0 |
| Aug 11 | FC Porto vs Guimaraes | 3-0 |
| Aug 10 | FC Porto vs Nizhny No… | 1-0 |
| Aug 09 | FC Porto vs Zvezda Pe… | 2-2 |
| Aug 02 | FC Porto vs Krylya So… | 1-4 |
Casa Pia AC Form 12.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15 | Casa Pia … vs AVS | 0-2 |
| Aug 08 | Casa Pia … vs Sporting … | 0-2 |
| Aug 02 | Casa Pia … vs Alverca | 2-3 |
| May 16 | Casa Pia … vs Famalicao | 2-1 |
| May 10 | Casa Pia … vs SC Braga | 2-1 |
| May 04 | Casa Pia … vs Arouca | 0-0 |
| Apr 29 | Casa Pia … vs Estoril | 1-3 |
| Apr 19 | Casa Pia … vs AVS | 1-1 |
| Apr 12 | Casa Pia … vs FC Porto | 0-1 |
| Apr 07 | Casa Pia … vs Farense | 0-0 |
Key Analysis Factors
- Casa Pia AC in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2025 | Casa Pia AC | 0 - 1 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 02, 2024 | FC Porto | 2 - 0 | Casa Pia AC | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 02, 2024 | FC Porto | 2 - 0 | Casa Pia AC | Pro League |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Casa Pia AC | 1 - 2 | FC Porto | Pro League |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Casa Pia AC | 1 - 2 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 09, 2023 | FC Porto | 3 - 1 | Casa Pia AC | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 09, 2023 | FC Porto | 3 - 1 | Casa Pia AC | Pro League |
| May 14, 2023 | FC Porto | 2 - 1 | Casa Pia AC | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 07, 2023 | Casa Pia AC | 0 - 0 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
Final Verdict
MASTER: FC Porto to win (83% confidence)
MASTER Tier
Predicted: 1-0
83% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%)
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%)
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- Huge position gap: 15
FC Porto Power
0
Casa Pia AC Power
0
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
1
FC Porto Position+15
Position Gap16
Casa Pia AC Position
Home Win Rate: 89%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.