AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Serie A Oct 05, 2025

Napoli

Home
VS
16:00

Genoa

Away
AI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
Napoli Win
55.0%
Draw
23.0%
Genoa Win
22.0%
Home Win (55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 93%
Standings 87%
Market 50%
Combined: 57% Draw Risk: 27%
xG: 3.17 - 1.23
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.2 vs 1.2 Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Napoli Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
4%
1 goals:
13%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
18%
Genoa Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
29%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
9%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (8%) 2-1 (8%) 3-0 (7%) 2-0 (6%) 3-2 (5%) 1-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 71%
Under 2.5 Goals 29%
Napoli Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 01 Napoli vs Sporting … 2-1
Sep 28 Napoli vs AC Milan 2-1
Sep 22 Napoli vs Pisa 3-2
Sep 18 Napoli vs Mancheste… 2-0
Sep 13 Napoli vs Fiorentina 1-3
Aug 30 Napoli vs Cagliari 1-0
Aug 23 Napoli vs Sassuolo 0-2
Aug 14 Napoli vs Olympiako… 2-1
Aug 09 Napoli vs Girona 3-2
May 23 Napoli vs Cagliari 2-0
Genoa Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 29 Genoa vs Lazio 0-3
Sep 25 Genoa vs Empoli 3-1
Sep 20 Genoa vs Bologna 2-1
Sep 15 Genoa vs Como 1-1
Aug 31 Genoa vs Juventus 0-1
Aug 23 Genoa vs Lecce 0-0
Aug 15 Genoa vs Vicenza V… 3-0
Aug 09 Genoa vs Rennes FC 2-2
May 24 Genoa vs Bologna 1-3
May 17 Genoa vs Atalanta 2-3
Key Analysis Factors
  • Napoli in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Genoa struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 11, 2025 Napoli 2 - 2 Genoa Serie A
Dec 21, 2024 Genoa 1 - 2 Napoli Pro League
Dec 21, 2024 Genoa 1 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Feb 17, 2024 Napoli 1 - 1 Genoa Serie A
Feb 17, 2024 Napoli 1 - 1 Genoa Pro League
Sep 16, 2023 Genoa 2 - 2 Napoli Serie A
May 15, 2022 Napoli 3 - 0 Genoa Serie A
Aug 29, 2021 Genoa 1 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Feb 06, 2021 Genoa 2 - 1 Napoli Serie A
Sep 27, 2020 Napoli 6 - 0 Genoa Serie A
Final Verdict

PRO: Napoli to win (74% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0 74% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Napoli Power 40
Genoa Power 32
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Napoli Position

+11

Position Gap

14

Genoa Position
Home Win Rate: 73%
Away Win Rate: 18%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.