AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Serie A Sep 28, 2025

AC Milan

Home
VS
18:45

Napoli

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
AC Milan Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Napoli Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 80%
Standings 56%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 34%
xG: 1.32 - 0.35
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.3 vs 0.3
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
AC Milan Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
27%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
23%
3 goals:
10%
4 goals:
3%
Napoli Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
71%
1 goals:
25%
2 goals:
4%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (25%) 0-0 (19%) 2-0 (16%) 1-1 (9%) 3-0 (7%) 0-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 22%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Under 2.5 Goals 77%
AC Milan Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 23 AC Milan vs Lecce 3-0
Sep 20 AC Milan vs Udinese 0-3
Sep 14 AC Milan vs Bologna 1-0
Aug 29 AC Milan vs Lecce 0-2
Aug 23 AC Milan vs Cremonese 1-2
Aug 17 AC Milan vs Bari 2-0
Aug 10 AC Milan vs Chelsea 4-1
Aug 09 AC Milan vs Leeds 1-1
May 24 AC Milan vs Monza 2-0
May 18 AC Milan vs AS Roma 3-1
Napoli Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 22 Napoli vs Pisa 3-2
Sep 18 Napoli vs Mancheste… 2-0
Sep 13 Napoli vs Fiorentina 1-3
Aug 30 Napoli vs Cagliari 1-0
Aug 23 Napoli vs Sassuolo 0-2
Aug 14 Napoli vs Olympiako… 2-1
Aug 09 Napoli vs Girona 3-2
May 23 Napoli vs Cagliari 2-0
May 18 Napoli vs Parma 0-0
May 11 Napoli vs Genoa 2-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • AC Milan in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
  • Napoli in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 30, 2025 Napoli 2 - 1 AC Milan Serie A
Oct 29, 2024 AC Milan 0 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Oct 29, 2024 AC Milan 0 - 2 Napoli Pro League
Feb 11, 2024 AC Milan 1 - 0 Napoli Pro League
Feb 11, 2024 AC Milan 1 - 0 Napoli Serie A
Oct 29, 2023 Napoli 2 - 2 AC Milan Serie A
Apr 18, 2023 Napoli 1 - 1 AC Milan UEFA Champions…
Apr 12, 2023 AC Milan 1 - 0 Napoli UEFA Champions…
Apr 02, 2023 Napoli 0 - 4 AC Milan Serie A
Sep 18, 2022 AC Milan 1 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Final Verdict

STANDARD: AC Milan to win (51% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 51% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
AC Milan Power 45
Napoli Power 40
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

AC Milan Position

+1

Position Gap

3

Napoli Position
Home Win Rate: 64%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.