AI Match Insights
Ligue 1 Sep 22, 2025
Marseille
HomeVS
18:00
Paris Saint Germain
AwayAI Predictions 44.4% Confidence
Marseille Win
Draw
Paris Saint Germain Win
Away Win
(44% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-2
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
93%
Standings
46%
Market
50%
Combined: 59%
Draw Risk: 25%
xG: 4.50 - 2.52
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 2.5
Score Prediction Analysis
Marseille Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Paris Saint Germain Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
3-2 (4%)
3-3 (4%)
3-1 (3%)
2-2 (3%)
2-3 (2%)
2-1 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
91%
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
Under 2.5 Goals
36%
Marseille Form 8.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | Marseille vs Real Madrā¦ | 2-1 |
| Sep 12 | Marseille vs Lorient | 4-0 |
| Aug 31 | Marseille vs Lyon | 1-0 |
| Aug 23 | Marseille vs Paris FC | 5-2 |
| Aug 15 | Marseille vs Rennes FC | 1-0 |
| Aug 09 | Marseille vs Aston Vilā¦ | 3-1 |
| May 17 | Marseille vs Rennes FC | 4-2 |
| May 10 | Marseille vs LE Havre ā¦ | 1-3 |
| May 04 | Marseille vs Lille | 1-1 |
| Apr 27 | Marseille vs Brest | 4-1 |
Paris Saint Germain Form 20.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 17 | Paris Saiā¦ vs Atalanta | 4-0 |
| Sep 14 | Paris Saiā¦ vs Lens | 2-0 |
| Aug 30 | Paris Saiā¦ vs Toulouse | 3-6 |
| Aug 22 | Paris Saiā¦ vs Angers | 1-0 |
| Aug 17 | Paris Saiā¦ vs Nantes | 0-1 |
| Aug 13 | Paris Saiā¦ vs Tottenham | 2-2 |
| Jul 05 | Paris Saiā¦ vs Bayern Muā¦ | 2-0 |
| May 31 | Paris Saiā¦ vs Inter | 5-0 |
| May 24 | Paris Saiā¦ vs Reims | 3-0 |
| May 17 | Paris Saiā¦ vs Auxerre | 3-1 |
Key Analysis Factors
- Paris Saint Germain in strong form (5W in last 5) Away
- Marseille struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 - 1 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Marseille | 0 - 3 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Marseille | 0 - 2 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Paris Saint Germain | 4 - 0 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Marseille | 0 - 3 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 08, 2023 | Marseille | 2 - 1 | Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de France |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 - 0 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 17, 2022 | Paris Saint Germain | 2 - 1 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Marseille to win (51% confidence)
STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 2-1
51% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
Marseille Power
48
Paris Saint Germain Power
49
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
3
Marseille Position-2
Position Gap1
Paris Saint Germain Position
Home Win Rate: 70%
Away Win Rate: 64%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.