AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
NPFL Oct 06, 2024

Nasarawa United

Home
VS
13:00

Bayelsa United

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Nasarawa United Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Bayelsa United Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 74%
Market 50%
Combined: 55% Draw Risk: 46%
xG: 2.60 - 0.23
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.6 vs 0.2 Position gap: 7 places
High draw risk (46%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Nasarawa United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
7%
1 goals:
19%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Bayelsa United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
80%
1 goals:
18%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (20%) 3-0 (17%) 1-0 (15%) 0-0 (6%) 2-1 (5%) 3-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Under 2.5 Goals 51%
Nasarawa United Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 15 Nasarawa … vs Niger Tor… 0-0
Mar 29 Nasarawa … vs Enyimba 1-1
Jan 14 Nasarawa … vs Enyimba 1-2
Jul 10 Nasarawa … vs Kano Pill… 1-0
Jun 18 Nasarawa … vs Niger Tor… 1-0
Jun 01 Nasarawa … vs Abia Warr… 2-1
May 28 Nasarawa … vs Enyimba 3-2
May 22 Nasarawa … vs Wikki Tou… 1-0
Mar 06 Nasarawa … vs Kano Pill… 2-0
Feb 21 Nasarawa … vs Niger Tor… 1-0
Bayelsa United Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 15 Bayelsa U… vs Kano Pill… 1-1
Jun 16 Bayelsa U… vs Shooting … 2-1
Jun 12 Bayelsa U… vs Enyimba 1-1
Mar 17 Bayelsa U… vs Kano Pill… 2-1
Mar 09 Bayelsa U… vs Niger Tor… 0-1
Jan 07 Bayelsa U… vs Shooting … 1-0
Dec 28 Bayelsa U… vs Enyimba 1-2
Oct 21 Bayelsa U… vs Niger Tor… 1-0
May 21 Bayelsa U… vs Niger Tor… 2-0
Feb 15 Bayelsa U… vs Niger Tor… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Final Verdict

STANDARD: Nasarawa United to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Nasarawa United Power 0
Bayelsa United Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Nasarawa United Position

+7

Position Gap

10

Bayelsa United Position
Home Win Rate: 67%
Away Win Rate: 18%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.