AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga Mar 16, 2025

Nacional

Home
VS
15:00

Casa Pia AC

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
Nacional Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
Casa Pia AC Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 55%
Market 50%
Combined: 61% Draw Risk: 24%
xG: 3.46 - 1.05
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.5 vs 1.1
Score Prediction Analysis
Nacional Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
3%
1 goals:
11%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
19%
Casa Pia AC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
35%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (8%) 3-0 (8%) 2-1 (7%) 2-0 (7%) 3-2 (4%) 1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 69%
Under 2.5 Goals 31%
Nacional Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 08 Nacional vs Benfica 3-0
Mar 01 Nacional vs Famalicao 2-1
Feb 21 Nacional vs SC Braga 1-0
Feb 15 Nacional vs Estoril 2-2
Feb 09 Nacional vs Farense 0-2
Feb 01 Nacional vs Arouca 1-2
Jan 25 Nacional vs Sp Lisbon 2-0
Jan 25 Nacional vs Sporting … 2-0
Jan 19 Nacional vs AVS 3-1
Jan 12 Nacional vs FC Porto 2-0
Casa Pia AC Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 09 Casa Pia … vs Sp Lisbon 1-3
Mar 09 Casa Pia … vs Sporting … 1-3
Mar 01 Casa Pia … vs Guimaraes 1-0
Feb 22 Casa Pia … vs GIL Vicen… 1-0
Feb 15 Casa Pia … vs Moreirense 3-2
Feb 09 Casa Pia … vs Estrela d… 1-0
Feb 01 Casa Pia … vs Santa Cla… 2-1
Jan 25 Casa Pia … vs Benfica 3-1
Jan 20 Casa Pia … vs Boavista 2-3
Jan 12 Casa Pia … vs Rio Ave FC 1-3
Key Analysis Factors
  • Casa Pia AC struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 25, 2024 Casa Pia AC 1 - 0 Nacional Pro League
Nov 25, 2023 Nacional 0 - 0 Casa Pia AC Taça de Portug…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Nacional Power 0
Casa Pia AC Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

12

Nacional Position

+3

Position Gap

15

Casa Pia AC Position
Home Win Rate: 33%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.